Opinion: Leading presidential candidates stumble in polls
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Politic Now
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Published on 05/3/2007
Horserace Journalism: It's been a rough month for some of the presidential front-runners in Iowa, according to new polls of the caucus contests.
Democrats Hillary Clinton and John Edwards saw their support drop. So did Republicans Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. Among the leading contenders, only Democrat Barack Obama made gains.
Republican Mitt Romney, who has been running a good campaign in Iowa, has inched into the top tier of his party's candidates by finishing third. Potential candidate Fred Thompson is close behind.
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Democrats Hillary Clinton and John Edwards saw their support drop. So did Republicans Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. Among the leading contenders, only Democrat Barack Obama made gains.
Republican Mitt Romney, who has been running a good campaign in Iowa, has inched into the top tier of his party's candidates by finishing third. Potential candidate Fred Thompson is close behind.
Link to source
Opinion: Leading presidential candidates stumble in polls
By DAVID YEPSEN
REGISTER POLITICAL COLUMNIST
Horserace Journalism: It's been a rough month for some of the presidential front-runners in Iowa, according to new polls of the caucus contests.
Democrats Hillary Clinton and John Edwards saw their support drop. So did Republicans Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. Among the leading contenders, only Democrat Barack Obama made gains.
Republican Mitt Romney, who has been running a good campaign in Iowa, has inched into the top tier of his party's candidates by finishing third. Potential candidate Fred Thompson is close behind.
Both parties also saw an increase in the number of undecided caucus-goers and some of the second-tier candidates making gains.
Add all this up, and it seems activists in both parties either have trouble with the leading contenders or are taking a wait-and-see attitude toward the races (which they can do, since there are still eight months before they vote).
The polls of likely Republican and Democratic caucus-goers were taken by the American Research Group of Manchester, N.H. The surveys, which were taken April 27 to 30, polled 600 likely caucus-goers in each party and have a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
On the Democratic side, something's clearly not working for Clinton in Iowa. She's lost a third of her support in a month, falling from 34 percent to 23 percent in the poll.
This drop may reflect Democratic concerns about her electability in the general election or the faux rural accent she's been heard to use around heartland audiences.
It's not hard to find Iowa Democrats who'll say something like, "I like Hillary Clinton, but I don't think she can win." And many on the left are upset with her support for the Iraq war and her refusal to apologize for it.
National polls show she evokes unfavorable reactions from large groups of voters, and this makes it difficult for her to find new supporters.
Edwards dropped 6 points in a month where much of the news about him was the revelation he paid $400 for a haircut. That, plus the large new home he is building, undercuts the po' boy image he wants to have.
The good news for Edwards is that he's back to his old status as the front-runner in Iowa, although it was a strange way to get there. Clinton dropped 11 points and Edwards dropped only 6, a shuffle that leaves him 4 points ahead of her - which is an insignificant lead in a poll with a 4 percentage-point margin of error.
Obama has picked up 3 points to cement his third-place position in the race, though he's still not where he was in February, when he was at 23 percent.
On the Republican side, the bloom is off the Giuliani rose in the state. Like Clinton, he's lost about a third of his support in a month.
For some time, GOP experts have said that once social conservatives figure out he's not so conservative on their issues, his support will sag, so maybe that's happening.
Giuliani could counter by rallying moderate Republicans, but Hizzoner just hasn't worked Iowa the way McCain and Romney have. If he wants to do well here, he needs to connect better and put more time and staff into the state - just as they have.
McCain has emerged as the GOP leader, but, like Edwards on the Democratic side, it's largely because some New Yorker stumbled.
The interesting candidate in the GOP race remains the non-candidate, Fred Thompson. The former U.S. senator and actor was at 12 percent a month ago and is at 13 percent today. That's impressive considering he's not campaigned in Iowa.
Link to source
REGISTER POLITICAL COLUMNIST
Horserace Journalism: It's been a rough month for some of the presidential front-runners in Iowa, according to new polls of the caucus contests.
Democrats Hillary Clinton and John Edwards saw their support drop. So did Republicans Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. Among the leading contenders, only Democrat Barack Obama made gains.
Republican Mitt Romney, who has been running a good campaign in Iowa, has inched into the top tier of his party's candidates by finishing third. Potential candidate Fred Thompson is close behind.
Both parties also saw an increase in the number of undecided caucus-goers and some of the second-tier candidates making gains.
Add all this up, and it seems activists in both parties either have trouble with the leading contenders or are taking a wait-and-see attitude toward the races (which they can do, since there are still eight months before they vote).
The polls of likely Republican and Democratic caucus-goers were taken by the American Research Group of Manchester, N.H. The surveys, which were taken April 27 to 30, polled 600 likely caucus-goers in each party and have a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
On the Democratic side, something's clearly not working for Clinton in Iowa. She's lost a third of her support in a month, falling from 34 percent to 23 percent in the poll.
This drop may reflect Democratic concerns about her electability in the general election or the faux rural accent she's been heard to use around heartland audiences.
It's not hard to find Iowa Democrats who'll say something like, "I like Hillary Clinton, but I don't think she can win." And many on the left are upset with her support for the Iraq war and her refusal to apologize for it.
National polls show she evokes unfavorable reactions from large groups of voters, and this makes it difficult for her to find new supporters.
Edwards dropped 6 points in a month where much of the news about him was the revelation he paid $400 for a haircut. That, plus the large new home he is building, undercuts the po' boy image he wants to have.
The good news for Edwards is that he's back to his old status as the front-runner in Iowa, although it was a strange way to get there. Clinton dropped 11 points and Edwards dropped only 6, a shuffle that leaves him 4 points ahead of her - which is an insignificant lead in a poll with a 4 percentage-point margin of error.
Obama has picked up 3 points to cement his third-place position in the race, though he's still not where he was in February, when he was at 23 percent.
On the Republican side, the bloom is off the Giuliani rose in the state. Like Clinton, he's lost about a third of his support in a month.
For some time, GOP experts have said that once social conservatives figure out he's not so conservative on their issues, his support will sag, so maybe that's happening.
Giuliani could counter by rallying moderate Republicans, but Hizzoner just hasn't worked Iowa the way McCain and Romney have. If he wants to do well here, he needs to connect better and put more time and staff into the state - just as they have.
McCain has emerged as the GOP leader, but, like Edwards on the Democratic side, it's largely because some New Yorker stumbled.
The interesting candidate in the GOP race remains the non-candidate, Fred Thompson. The former U.S. senator and actor was at 12 percent a month ago and is at 13 percent today. That's impressive considering he's not campaigned in Iowa.
Link to source